четверг, 30 июня 2011 г.

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  • dartkid31
    05-24 11:18 AM
    He is just using this to play illegals vs legals. If you watch his lousy program, he is constantly ranting that this CIR bill will increase immigration by 100 million plus in the next few years. Some time back he also said that the CIR is a covert operation to increase H1Bs and legal immigration, not just about illegal immigrants. You can tune out what Lou says, he's doing what he can to improve his ratings.


    Very true. And if anyone is still not convinced, check out this doozy:

    http://www.alternet.org/blogs/peek/36625/

    All Lou Dobbs does is promote the agenda of Tom Tancredo, Jeff Sessions, FAIR, NumbersUsa, John Tanton, and our other good friends. And we know where they stand.




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  • pthoko
    07-11 10:10 AM
    pthoko..

    wait for UN's reply

    but I think it is better to be honest on the G328 form and not lie as it mentions in coconut sized letters that we r mentioning the facts and signing the forms. Later on they will have all the rights to ask proof documents thru RFE for paystubs,w2 etc, after that we cannot lie anymore and might land in further mess. we submit all the H1/L1 approvals at the time of 485 filing..they can just enter the case# and get the whole history of the case...

    AFAIK..I don't think yours is a violation of status, you were eligible to work on L1 until 2006 and also eligible to work on H1 since Oct 2005. In a H1 scenario,if I extend my H1 with current employer until next July, meanwhile find another employer and file a H1 with new employer until next July, after 4 months with new employer, you change your mind and want to go back to old employer..you can work with old employer until July as long as the old employer does not cancel your old H1..

    * i140 stage,only the companies financial records r checked,you even need not be employed with them when you r filing the i140.
    * 1st time stamping in Canada/Mexico for H1b is not possible I think as it has to be done in home country,unless you have a US Masters.

    btw...I have a question, does your H1b approval have an i94 attached with it...? hopefully ..yes..

    YES my H1B approval had an I-94 attached with it. Same no: as my L1 I-94.

    Thanks.




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  • abracadabra102
    01-03 07:01 PM
    If cockroaches from my house take a dump in your kitchen, don't ask me to apologize for that.

    You summed up the entire Pakistani approach to terrorism beautifully. We have a problem. You won't cleanup your house and I can't live like you (with all these cockroaches coming from your house). I am afraid I may have to burn your house down. I may lose my house as well, but that is the risk I should be taking.




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  • gapala
    06-05 07:12 PM
    Guys... Do not just look at individual rent vs. own comparision, have a bigger picture on the situation that we are in. I am tired of broker's "location..location...location" thing as well.. These things are way off the reality in this country..

    Historically, we all have seen that markets goes up and some times bubbles up, and goes down for a correction, some times south into recession.. .This is quiet natural to happen.. be it housing market or money market. We all know that Housing market needs a correction from those days where prices went up by $20,000 a month for several months without any control driven by easy credit, 0 down and stupid stated income policies.. Sure enough.. market started to correct itself after the credit become tight and lot of folks who jumped on to buy house at the top of peak went under water due to drop in the value of their homes... Here comes the obama housing rescue plan.. what are they trying to do here? trying to maintiain the bubble by encouraging more credit and spending.. working against natural correction of home prices towards south.

    Now lets look at whats happening around us and see if we will have returns on house as an investment.. (For those who are without GC, this becomes important).

    The gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI) of US, a basic measure of an economy's economic performance, is about $13 Trillion per year as widely reported and boasted. Of that amount, approximately half, or $6.5 Trillion, is directly or indirectly related to government spending on the Federal, State, and Local levels.. :)

    Think about that for a second, about half of US current GDP is government spending? Does it sounds like developing nation? and due to job loss, loss of interest income, strained consumer keeps cutting back..the economy will contract further and eventually the goverment spending will be a major portion.

    US does not produce any consumer goods, its all China..if you don't produce you don't sell and if you don't sell you don't make an income, and if you don't make an income you don't pay taxes...plain and simple. So, what do we do, Borrow and spend.. but remember, the interest obligations will grow to suck the dollars away from goods and services that it purchases. (Folks are in China now :D)

    Due to a struggling economy, primarily driven by consumers credit crunch, lower sales means, less revenue for government and they must borrow more money to keep the government machine spending and the economy rolling despite lower tax revenues.

    It was all good when Consumers and Government borrowed, as long as they could find someone to lend and collectively could spend. During the bubble, banks lent to consumers freely and foreigners lent to Government until banks and foreigners realized we simply borrowed too much slowed lending as it became much more difficult to service the debt. Now banks are not lending to consumers with less than best rating and the government is forcing banks to lend to consumers by loaning banks TAXPAYER money at 1/4% and the banks loan it right back to us at 4.5 yo 5.5% now. How about that? :D:D

    Due to lack of credit for non-government sector, of US economy...private sector is becoming much poorer much faster creating an imbalance in the society. Mathematically private sector going south will continue due to the very high leverage on the Private Side as more and more dwindling dollars are simply allocated to paying interest due to less revenues. With time a greater and greater percentage of a troubled economy will be directly consumed by rising interest payments resulting in less
    government spending which might lead us to an inflation, wages will never keep up with exploding commodity prices. Then only option remains Tax increases on those who earn :)
    Because, Right now a huge portion of government spending is feeding the poor, housing assistance, and providing medical care to the poor and elderly. Once the government bailout dry up, fewer and fewer will be able to borrow, work on and pay taxes in private sector, fewer and fewer will be able to pay taxes and the burden will rest on the shoulders of those that have something to offer...all what they have will not be enough to sustain a $13 Trillion dollar economy.

    With such a scenario, house prices cannot stay up at more than 4 times the desposible income of majority (middle class) population which remains at less than mere USD 30000. You can imagine now, what is going to happen if home prices does not correct itself due to government interfearance.

    Its an individual perspective to decide to buy home.. Do comment and throw out your ideas..

    You can find my analysis of housing market on link below (india vs. US) http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=285966#post285966



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  • DoNotWorry
    04-08 12:18 PM
    This might be good for developing countries!!!! Don't worry guys, the world will evolve on new terms. As Bill Gates told, if workers can not come here, the Companies will go to that Countries.




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  • Winner
    03-25 11:01 AM
    Thanks for contributing to IV with meaningful discussions. Would you all consider making a monetary contribution to IV?



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  • xyzgc
    12-30 12:42 AM
    The Pakistani security establishment believes, and there is probably some truth in it, that India is already supporting groups that are trying to destabilize Pakistan. And because of that, they view India as an existential threat to Pakistan, and justify their own activities.

    Its quite a vicious circle.....

    If that is true, to complete the circle, you'll also see terrorist attacks, sponsored by India, on innocent civilians in Pakistan. You'll soon get a fitting reply, something which will put the lives of your mom and dad in danger and scare the hell out of them.




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  • Macaca
    05-09 05:44 PM
    Still, Sometimes, a Great Nation (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/07/us/07iht-currents07.html) By ANAND GIRIDHARADAS | New York Times

    The commando who shot Osama bin Laden just above the left of his doe eyes could forever remain a ghost to Americans. His name may never be revealed; his tell-all may never be written; he, unlike other American eminences, may never be featured on �Celebrity Apprentice.�

    But this ghost is a hero to a nation in need of a little stimulant. For many Americans this week, it was at once grisly and lovely to receive a reminder, courtesy of a revenge killing, that American vigor still has its moments.

    These have been tough years for American power: years of a sick economy that cannot easily be healed; of wars that cannot, tactically or definitionally, be �won�; of new powers that have risen under the shelter of the Pax Americana and now will not be told what to do. Great numbers of Americans now fear that their children will not lead lives as bounteous and carefree as theirs.

    And then there they were: dropping from their ladders, clearing and holding corridors, shooting to kill, escaping before anyone could interfere. The unseen scene resonated so well, perhaps, because Americans have been trained to know what it looked like. This, at least as the White House narrated it, was a standard-issue action movie midnight raid.

    A raid of this dramatic kind is one of those things at which America remains unrivaled, in cinema and in real life. And so it was a moment to relive a feeling of unmitigated American supremacy. In this domain at least, there is no country like America on earth.

    The trouble with the killing of Bin Laden, though, is that the triumph is an island. Victory in Abbottabad does not foreshadow greater victories in Iraq or Afghanistan, or over terrorism in general. As in so many areas of American life today, the country can do spellbinding things no other one can do, but it often struggles to perform the more prosaic feats on which its long-term fate may more heavily depend.

    Consider the realm of technology, in which America, once again, has the finest elite commandos: Google, Facebook, Twitter, Netflix, Apple, Pandora. Time and again, when breakthrough technologies come, they come from America. What is the chance of a Chinese search engine displacing Google, or a game-changing device like the iPhone sprouting in France?

    And yet America does not lead the world technologically in the more prosaic ways. It does not have the best or most cost-efficient mobile phone networks. The average American Internet hookup is two and a half times slower than that in South Korea. The country lacks adequate retraining programs to move people from waning professions like telemarketer and sewing machine operator into new roles in the technology sector.

    It is the same with education. America is home to the greatest concentration of research universities in the world, with the best laboratories and faculties as well as, arguably, the top students. More Nobel laureates inhabit certain American campuses than live in certain moderately sized countries.

    But beyond the elite corridors of American education, it is a different story. Last year, the results of the standardized Program for International Student Assessments, given to 15-year-olds worldwide, found the United States behind 16 other countries in reading and 22 in science. In response, the American education secretary, Arne Duncan, spoke of �the brutal truth that we�re being out-educated.� And that was before the recent round of budget cuts and teacher layoffs across the country, which might well make it even harder for America to be middling in the world.

    And so it is in health care, where America has, at one end, the Mayo Clinic and the Cleveland Clinic and Massachusetts General Hospital, which the richest patients in the world still choose over most alternatives; and, at the other end, tens of millions of uninsured people, a condition that is all but unique in the industrialized world.

    So it is with immigration, where the United States continues to attract the brightest immigrants in the world, while failing year after year to resolve the massive and messy question of illegal immigration. So it is with banking, in which the United States is the leader in employing complex transactions like credit-default swaps, but has struggled with the more basic task of pairing businesses with loans.

    The commandos of Abbottabad are, then, like the commandos in any number of American fields � elite troopers who play at the highest levels in the world, but whose successes are wholly their own, not easily replicated beyond their little world.

    This duality of the world-beating Americans and the world-trailing ones perhaps suggests an emerging reality of U.S. life after globalization: It may be that America the country can remain vitally competitive, even as vast numbers of Americans � perhaps a majority � have a lower quality of life than prevails elsewhere. As with the U.S. Navy Seals in Pakistan, so dynamic is America�s elite that its dynamism can offset the lagging behind of others. If a country gains a $20-million-a-year hedge fund job and loses 400 $50,000-a-year industrial ones, after all, its national income figure stays the same.

    But there is the problem of the 400 people � and of the 40,000 and the 40 million. There is a sense in many corners of America of there no longer being space for the ordinary, a sense of the collapse of the middle. Parents find themselves wondering how hard to push their children in this dawning age: wondering how clever and focused and dogged they will have to be to remain ahead of the world rather than chase behind it.


    Memo to India, China: The U.S. Still Matters (http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2011/05/09/economics-journal-memo-to-india-china-the-u-s-still-matters/) By Rupa Subramanya Dehejia | IndiaRealTime
    Free trade agreements don�t kill jobs (http://dailycaller.com/2011/05/04/trade-agreements-dont-kill-jobs/) By Ryan Young | The Daily Caller
    If You Have the Answers, Tell Me (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/08/business/economy/08view.html) By N. GREGORY MANKIW | New York Times
    Woman of the World (http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2011/06/hillary-clinton-201106) By Jonathan Alter | Vanity Fair
    What�s a college education worth?
    Engineering and accounting degrees may provide most opportunity (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-a-college-education-worth-2011-05-03)
    By Jennifer Openshaw | MarketWatch
    The Best Cities For Jobs (http://blogs.forbes.com/joelkotkin/2011/05/02/the-best-cities-for-jobs/) By Joel Kotkin | New Geographer
    Firms Feel 'Say on Pay' Effect (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704473104576293140070753066.html) By JOANN S. LUBLIN | Wall Street Journal
    As Labor Costs Rise, Spotlight Is on Benefits (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704473104576293583385838072.html) By JOE LIGHT | Wall Street Journal



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  • Macaca
    03-06 09:00 PM
    A Peek Into Corporate America (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/05/AR2007030501370.html)

    Not waiting for Congress to impose new disclosure laws, shareholder activists have persuaded some of the nation's largest companies to disclose their political spending on such things as issue campaigns. General Electric, Hewlett-Packard and American Electric Power recently agreed to report how much they give trade associations for politics and lobbying. Home Depot said it would report "soft money" gifts such as corporate donations to political advocacy groups.

    The decision was announced by the Center for Political Accountability, Trillium Asset Management and Green Century Capital Management. The four companies join 15 other major corporations that have adopted increased transparency policies since 2005.

    Separately, Aegon USA, a financial services firm, has begun to list on its campaign finance reports the events at which it gives money to politicians, a disclosure not required by law. It said its $5,000 donation to the leadership fund of Sen. Thomas R. Carper (D-Del.) was made during a "ski weekend." Anyone see a trend?




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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-26 07:19 PM
    Two rednecks were looking at a Sears catalog and admiring the models.

    One says to the other, 'Have you seen the beautiful girls in this catalog?'

    The second one replies, 'Yes, they are very beautiful. And look at the price!'

    The first one says, with wide eyes, 'Wow, they aren't very expensive. At this price, I'm buying one.'

    The second one smiles and pats him on the back. 'Good idea! Order one and if she's as beautiful as she is in the catalog, I will get one too.'

    Three weeks later, the youngest redneck asks his friend, 'Did you ever receive the girl you ordered from the Sears catalog?'

    The second redneck replies, 'No, but it shouldn't be long now. I got her clothes yesterday!'



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  • gc4me
    08-05 12:24 PM
    I would like to compare Mrs. Rolling_Flood to Lou Dobbs who only initiates controversy and never dares to challenge.
    And now Rolling_Flood is enjoying his forum which is growing exponentially!

    C'mon Mrs. or Miss Rolling_Flood, post you qualification here. (honesty please! :D)

    Originally Posted by gc4me

    Mrs. Rolling_Flood,
    Post you qualification here.
    You can see flood of post from EB3 folks who has superior qualification (education wise as well as experience) compare to you. Either you are out of your mind from rigorous GC fever or a one eyed person with poor imagination or simply you did not get a chance to work in a big environment like fortune 10 or may be fortune 100 companies. Or else you would know how/why/when a company files under EB3 despite the fact that the candidate has more than required qualification for EB2. Position requirement, layoffs, HR policies, Company’s Attorney Firm’s policy etc. comes to picture when a big organization files LC/GC for a candidate.

    I guess you are like me working with a small deshi consulting firm with 3 or 4 consultants (working C2C). They can make almost anyone eligible (on the paper) for EB2.

    Then ask me why I am not EB2? According to my company's attorney, I-140 will be rejected due to the stand of
    company's financials.




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  • sw33t
    12-28 05:12 AM
    Do you realize the extent of loss after Mumbai attacks?
    The initial rough-and-ready calculations estimate that the business loss on those two days is close to $10 billion and the foreign exchange hit is approximately $20 billion.
    A bomb scare in any software park in India (just a scare - no loss of life and property) will generate enough fear factor to shut it down for several weeks! How much loss do you think it entails?


    So your justification on spending billions more on what was lost is the right thing???


    And what about the loss of civilian lives? The lives of soldiers dying in shelling across India-Pak borders? The loss of morale of Mumbaities!! The feeling of insecurity when you hop on to the daily commuter train? Who will account for all of that?

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/Mumbai_attacks_may_have_cost_Rs_50k_crore/articleshow/3777430.cms


    Going to war to retaliate might give the impression of satisfaction, but the insecurity caused by trauma is still going to live on forever.


    Of course, wars are costly! It doesn't mean you should not go on war, it doesn't mean you should zero out your defence budgets, or does it?


    Agreed!


    Do you drive your car without an insurance?


    Exactly. The state, the county, the city and the insurance company make money off of your will to comply! Thousands more will die off of your desire to go to war whereas the arms dealers make money.



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  • rsdang
    08-11 04:55 PM
    :D1) Did you fart? Cuz you just blew me away.

    2) Are yer parents retarded? Cuz ya sure are special.


    3) My Love fer you is like diarrhea, I can't hold it in!

    4) Do you have a library card? Cuz I'd like to check you out.


    5) Is there a mirror in yer pants? Cuz I can see myself in em.


    6) If you was a tree and I were a Squirrel, I'd store my nuts in yer hole.


    7) You might not be the best lookin girl here, but beauty's only a light switch away.

    8) Fat Penguin................... Sorry, I just wanted to say something that would break the ice.


    9) I know I'm not no Fred Flintstone, but I bet I can make yer bed-rock.


    10) I can't find my puppy , can you help me find him? I Think he went into this cheap motel room.


    11) Yer eyes are as blue as window cleaner.


    12) If yer gunna regret this in the mornin', we kin sleep Til afternoon.



    13) Yer face reminds me of a wrench, every time I think of it my nuts tighten up

    And.... The best for last!

    14) I may not be Mr. Right, but I'll damn sure hump ya' till he comes along...




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  • ssa
    07-14 08:00 PM
    That's exactly what I was wondering about! Did anybody get a rejection letter from *DOL* advising them to apply in EB3 instead? It's hard for me to believe DOL was ever that helpful!

    And if they did not hear it from DOL and did this on their attorney's/employer's advise sending out this letter may spell trouble for the sender. You are basically sending out a signed letter stating that you tried to get labor approved for one category, failed and then applied in a lower category for exactly same job to work your way around the rejection. I'm not sure on how solid legal ground we will be if this be the case. Job requirements are supposed to be what they are and not what is "approvable". Remember recent Fragomen audit?

    Now before labeling this as yet another FUD from EB2 please understand that I'm not saying that you should or shouldn't send out the letter. Just that we should consult someone qualified in immigration law to make sure we are not inviting more troubles than what we are already in.

    pani,

    This is what you have in the draft letter.

    "Let me take you back to the situation in 2001-2003 when a lot of current (EB3) applicants were qualified under EB2 and RIR category(many of whom had masters degrees from Top US universities) our green card labors applications were sent back from DOL saying that the economy was slow and hence cant apply in EB-2. So we were forced to apply in EB3 NON- RIR categories, but when the economy improved in 04-05 you introduced the PERM system and most people applied in EB2 and got their Labors cleared in few months time while the folks who applied in 2001-2004 were stuck at the backlog centers for 3 plus years."

    Do you have any evidence/reference to back this up?



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  • willigetagc
    08-05 08:40 AM
    The said person should have been aware of what he or she was getting into. Blaming your hardship on other people and trying to get mileage out of it is hardly an honest way............would you agree?

    I dont think your proposal is fair. PD belongs to the person whether he is EB2, 3 or 10.

    In fact, if you think about it an EB3-to-EB2 convert would spend more time in the queue than a full EB2 and less than a full EB3.
    But what you are proposing will make a 3-to-2 convert spend more time in the queue than a full EB3.

    You know the GC queue is a dynamic one. You need to look at the total time spent in queue to determine whats fair.




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  • enqueued
    03-22 11:39 PM
    IMHO - go buy a house. We cannot freeze our lives for green card.

    I bought one in the first year of my H1. I changed it last year. I am in the 9th year now. It is the *only* sensible investment I made.

    Cheers.



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  • 485Mbe4001
    08-06 01:41 PM
    Lets petition USCIS to scrap EB3 and send them home. Rolling_flood needs his GC real bad... We are unavailable today and will be U in 2010. you can have our 3k visa for your category.

    Have you never jumped a line in your life, i bet you have.

    We see it all the time, people will find ways to move ahead and so will you..nothing wrong with that. What is wrong is demeaning or ridiculing a group for you selfish needs...good luck with the law suit.. the least it will do is highlight problem our to a greater audience (Y).




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  • mrajatish
    04-08 12:21 PM
    Look what really does not make sense about the "Consulting company" portion is that management consulting companies like BCG, Mckenzie or the Big 4 consulting firms have a business model where they "outsource" employees for projects to other companies. So, as it stands, these companies will not be able to hire anyone from top business schools. And we are not talking about desi consulting companies here (no pun intended).

    Again, this bill embodies the basic principle that displaces US workers do not want to understand:
    "What is good for the economy may not be good for an individual".

    And I say that because I have been myself displaces 2 times in my life, and every time, I have fallen (or stumbled), I have walked an extra mile to get a better life.

    I just feel sorry for people like me and many others who came to this country with a different mindset and now find themselves in the midst of the worst anti-immigrant clime that has existed in a long time.

    That said, I feel obligated to remind everyone - "Do yourself a favor and do everything within your means to make a meaningful change, self-help is the best help you will get"

    - Raj




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  • mariner5555
    04-15 03:37 AM
    We are looking to buy a house and the bank is asking us to put down 10%. How much money is considered safe to have after down-payment if we are buying a home. I know it depends on the situation, but I would like some estimates/ball-park figures.
    if on EAD / H1 - have atleast 12 months living expenses (food, mortgage, utilities taxes etc ..for worst case scenario - maybe even more -- since you won't be able to sell the house easily if you have to move for a new job) ..if on GC, I guess 6 months. depends on yr area, skills etc ..my guess only.
    here is the latest from Wachovia ..(I know it is a repeat ..but to answer the original thread question for others who may want opinions) ..These economists are generally optimistic even when the situation is bad (since it hurts their own stock prices) ..the fact that they are pessimistic shows the real situation. In other words (my thoughts) - if your 485 is pending, then there is no hurry to buy a house ..deals will get better in the next 18 months. (after that house prices will be stagnant for a longer time -- this is for most locations or around 95% of US cities/towns)
    ------------
    Don Truslow, chief risk officer of banking giant Wachovia (WB, Fortune 500), said home prices should fall through 2008 before finally hitting bottom in the middle of 2009. (Wachovia, the No. 4 U.S. bank by assets, reported an unexpected loss Monday.)

    Sinai argues that until housing prices turn around, there isn't much hope for a pick-up in the economy because housing woes will continue be a drag on consumer spending and the credit markets.
    "So much borrowing and lending was leveraged to [housing], that as long as values keep going down, the exposure of consumers, of financial institutions and of investors remains extremely high," he said.
    -----------
    if you are technical person ..read this article ..not sure how he (Mr. Makin is a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.)comes up with 23% figure ..but I guess he must have done research.
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120813349057411671.html?mod=opinion_main_comment aries

    -------
    As average house prices plummet – declining at a 23% annual rate over the three months ending in January – lenders are sharply curtailing access to mortgage-based, home-equity loans. The 15% of U.S. mortgage holders with negative equity in their homes have no access to credit, and 20% with marginal equity have limited access at best.Overall access to credit is contracting: Ask Americans trying to utilize home-equity lines or arrange student loans.
    ---------




    sidchhikara
    04-06 10:24 PM
    But congress needs to find some solution for H1b mess like applying 150k H1b in one day. If no alternative solution is suggested some part/all part of this bill may be considered. US companies will not be impacted as they are not h1b dependent and they are hiring more than 50% US workers so they may not oppose that much. If Microsoft lobby for 200k H1b but still if they could not get any h1b why will they lobby it? American companies will either ask unlimited H1b or restrictions for bodyshopping so that everyone will get fair share of H1b. Lottery is shame as many deserving candidates will be rejected but many lower grade people may enter there is no merrit in selection of H1b. If IV is opposing this they need to give some solution for H1b mess. Otherwise no point. Also the bill was introduced by both Democrat and Republican. So Whether it is passed or not it is going to be considered
    what are you saying? The above post is totally incoherent




    Madhuri
    04-05 08:12 PM
    Jang.Lee,
    I totally aggree with you. I am also from socal and a regular visior to irvinehousingblog.
    Currenly I am in apt and tired of living in apt, but I am definitely in no rush to buy and would probably find a good private home to rent.

    Please check your PM.

    I think you missed my point. I was not trying to connect the ARM reset schedule with write-offs at wall street firms. Instead, I was trying to point out that there will be increased number of foreclosures as those ARMs reset over the next 36 months.

    The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).

    On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.

    Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).

    Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.

    You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))

    Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).

    Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.

    So you stand to lose:

    1. Your down payment of $120k
    2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
    3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k

    Total potential loss: $250,000!!!

    This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.

    My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.



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